Article 43

 

Next Recession, Next Depression

Monday, May 04, 2020

The Next Depression Part 57 - The Great Lockdown

image: coronavirus

“Great Lockdown” to rival Great Depression with 3% hit to global economy, says IMF

By Larry Elliott
The Guardian
April 14 2020

The International Monetary Fund has slashed its forecasts for global growth in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and warned of a slump in output this year unparalleled since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In its half-yearly forecasts, the IMF SAID “ the Great Lockdown” would cause a dramatic drop in activity that would be far more painful than the recession that followed the banking meltdown of the late 2000s.

The IMF said the sudden shock caused by the spread of the coronavirus meant it had been forced to tear up AN ESTIMATE IT MADE JUT THREE MONTHS AGO of 3.3% global growth this year and replace it with an expected contraction of 3%.

Until now the downturn that followed the near meltdown of the global financial system in late 2008 has been the most serious of the postwar era, with global activity shrinking by 0.1% in 2009

Bigger output losses have now been pencilled in for 2020, concentrated in the rich economies of the west, which are forecast to shrink by 6.1% on average. Italy and Spain - the two worst-affected European economies from Covid-19 so far - will see GDP falls of 9.1% and 8%, respectively, the IMF said in its world economic outlook. Britains drop in output is put at 6.5%.

Of the big emerging economies, China’s growth rate is expected to fall from 6.1% last year to 1.2% in 2020 its lowest in decades. India is on course to expand by 1.9%, down from 4.2%.

Adjusted to take account of population changes, the IMF’s forecasts were even gloomier. Gross domestic product (GDP) per head - one measure of living standards - is expected to fall globally by 4.2% in 2020, by 6.5% in advanced countries, and by 7% in the UK.

Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s economic counsellor, said the size of the hit to the global economy, uncertainty about the how long the shock would last, and the need to discourage economic activity to contain the virus had to led to a crisis “like no other.”

She added:"It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago. “The Great Lockdownӑ” as one might call it, is projected to shrink global growth dramatically.

The IMF is predicting a partial recovery in 2021, when it is estimating that growth will recover to 5.6%, but Gopinath said the level of GDP would remain below the pre-virus trend, with considerable uncertainty about the strength of the rebound.

She warned: “Much worse growth outcomes are possible and maybe even likely.”

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) is assuming that economic disruptions are concentrated mostly in the second quarter of 2020 for almost all countries except China (where the impact was most intense in the first quarter). The time taken for production to be scaled back up means the sharp plunge in output will be followed by only a gradual recovery.

The IMF said its forecasts were highly uncertain and that the risks were that the economic cost of the pandemic would be worse than currently envisaged. Recovery relied on stimulus measures being effective in preventing widespread company bankruptcies, limiting job losses, and easing financial strains.

The WEO modelled three alternative scenarios: a 2020 lockdown lasting 50% longer than it is forecasting; a mild recurrence of the virus in 2021; and a protracted pandemic and longer containment effort in 2020, as well as a recurrence in 2021.

In the worst case, the global economy would shrink by around 11% rather than 3%.

Gopinath said: “The economic landscape will be altered significantly for the duration of the crisis and possibly longer, with greater involvement of government and central banks in the economy.”

“At a time when Italy and Spain have started to lift their lockdown restrictions,” Gopinath said: “There are many reasons for optimism, despite the dire circumstances. In countries with major outbreaks, the number of new cases has come down, after strong social distancing practices were put in place. The unprecedented pace of work on treatments and vaccines also promises hope. The swift and substantial economic policy actions taken in many countries will help shield people and firms, preventing even more severe economic pain and create the conditions for the recovery.”

Although the effects of the pandemic have been more severe so far in developed countries, the IMF said they were better equipped to cope. It added that many emerging and developing economies faced a multilayered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital flight, and collapsing commodity prices.

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Section Dying America • Section Next Recession, Next Depression
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Sunday, April 19, 2020

The Next Depression Part 56 - Coronavirus

image: america the plentiful

Straggling in a Good Economy, and Now Struggling in a Crisis
The coronavirus pandemic has shown how close to the edge many Americans were living, with pay and benefits eroding even as corporate profits surged.

By Patricia Cohen
NY Times
April 16, 2020

An indelible image from the Great Depression features a well-dressed family seated with their dog in a comfy car, smiling down from an oversize billboard on weary souls standing in line at a relief agency. World’s highest standard of living, the billboard boasts, followed by a tagline: “There’s no way like the American Way.”

The ECONOMIC SHUTDOWN caused by the CORONAVIRUS pandemic has suddenly hurled the country back to that dislocating moment captured in 1937 by the photographer Margaret Bourke-White. In the updated 2020 version, lines of cars stretch for miles to pick up groceries from A FOOD PANTRY; JOBLESS WORKERS spend days trying to file for unemployment benefits; renters and homeowners plead with landlords and mortgage bankers for extensions; and outside hospitals, ILL PATIENTS LINE UP OVERNIGHT to wait for virus testing.

In an ECONOMY that has been hailed for its record-shattering successes, the most basic necessities food, shelter and medical care - are all suddenly at risk.

The latest crisis has played out in sobering economic data and bleak headlines most recently on Thursday, when the Labor Department said 5.2 MILLION WORKERS FILES LAST WEEK FOR UNEMPLOYMENT benefits.

That brought the four-week total to 22 million, roughly the net number of jobs created in a nine-and-a-half-year stretch that ended with the pandemic’s arrival.

Certainly, the outbreak and attempts to curb it have created new hardships. But perhaps more significantly, the crisis has revealed profound, longstanding vulnerabilities in the economic system.

“We built an economy with no shock absorbers,” said Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-winning economist. “We made a system that looked like it was maximizing profits but had higher risks and lower resiliency.”

Well before the coronavirus established a foothold, the AMERICAN ECONOMY had been playing out on a split screen.

On one were impressive achievements: the lowest jobless rate in half a century, a soaring stock market and the longest expansion on record.

On the other, a very different story of stinging economic weaknesses unfolded. Years of limp wage growth left workers struggling to afford essentials. Irregular work schedules caused weekly paychecks to surge and dip unpredictably. Job-based benefits were threadbare or nonexistent. IN THIS ECONOMY, four of 10 adults don’t have the resources on hand to cover an UNPLANNED $400 EXPENSE.

Even middle-class Americans, once snugly secure, have become increasingly anxious in recent decades about their own fragile finances and their children’s prospects.

Since the recession’s end, the economy has pumped out enormous wealth. Workers, though, have gotten a smaller slice of those rewards. Companies prioritized SHORT-TERM GAINS and stockholder returns at the same time that employee bargaining power was eroding.

In less than two decades, the share of income paid out in wages and benefits in the private sector shrank by 5.4 percentage points, a McKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE STUDY found last year, reducing compensation on average by $3,000 a year, adjusted for inflation.

The result is that a job - once the guarantor of income security - no longer reliably plays that role.

“For many working families, wage growth has not been strong enough to allow them to meet their basic needs on their own,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston concluded in a report last year.

Work is available - but it is often UNSTEADY and POORLY-PAID.

Roughly seven of 10 people enrolled in public health care in New England were employed, the bank study found. So were nearly half of those who qualified for temporary cash assistance from the government.

Employers who pay low wages and don’t offer benefits have in effect been subsidized through programs providing publicly funded medical insurance, rent money and food stamps to their workers.

Now individual employees with few resources - rather than companies or partners - are compelled to absorb some of the routine risks and uncertainties of running a business. Scheduling software that constantly changes a worker’s daily shifts to match an unexpected slowdown or rush improves a business’s bottom line but can ruin a household’s by causing wages to fluctuate widely from one week to the next. Such shifting not only scrambles family life, but also makes it more difficult to schedule other paid work.

At large companies, employees have seen their spending on HEALTH CARE because of higher deductibles, premiums and co-payments - increase twice as fast as their wages over the past decade, according to the Peterson-Kaiser Health System Tracker.

At the same time, the cost of other necessities like housing has shot up. Millions of renters spend more than half their incomes on housing. Middle-income households, too, have been hit by escalating housing costs. Since 2000, a steadily growing share of this group has spent more than a third of earnings on rent.

For years, households have strained to navigate this cut-to-the bone economy with varying success. The coronavirus shock has made the economic precariousness - usually seen in scattershot fashion - evident everywhere at once.

“A lot of the people in the economy are living at the edge, and you have an event like this that pushes them over, Mr. Stiglitz said. “And we are unique in the advanced world in having people at the edge without a safety net below them.”

Powerful forces like advancing technology and globalization are partly to blame for workers economic instability. But Mr. Stiglitz also criticized the short-term mind-set prevalent in corporate America. Airlines җ now being propped up with emergency government aid used billions of dollars in profits to buy back their stock, he said, instead of investing in employees and productive capacity or building up reserves to withstand a downturn.

In 2018 alone, companies in the S&P 500 ח flush from windfalls resulting from steep cuts in corporate taxes spent $806 billion repurchasing their own shares at boom-time prices in search of quick profits.

When the outbreak began to shutter the economy, many of these companies laid off millions of workers, ending their health insurance.

“Employer-based health insurance is a wrecking ball,” the Princeton University economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton wrote this week in The New York Times. The couple, the authors of ”DEATHS OF DESPAIR” and the “Future of Capitalism,” argue that over time this system has {destroyed} THE LABOR MARKET FOR LESS EDUCATED workers.”

The patched social service network that runs through individual states is now struggling to handle the millions of unemployment claims that have poured in as well as a flood of new applicants trying to tap existing programs. But assistance doesn’t necessarily arrive quickly. In Louisiana, for example, THE BACKLOG OF APLICATIONS for food stamps filed since businesses were closed in mid-March already exceeds 87,000.

In the meantime, nongovernmental organizations are trying to meet the demand. Fulfill, a food bank that operates in Monmouth and Ocean Counties in New Jersey, has served an additional 364,000 meals in the last three weeks, a 40 percent spike.

“We went from 0 to 60 in five seconds,” said Kim Guadagno, Fulfills chief executive and president. “Hurricane Sandy in 2012 was devastating,” she said, but this is worse because “the need is widespread, with no end in sight”

“Last year, before the pandemic, Feeding America, the nation’s largest network of food banks, fed 40 million individuals, many of them children,” said Claire Babineaux-Fontenot, the chief executive. “It does underscore the fact that so many people in our country live on a precipice” she said.

Housing also feels less secure. A RECENT SURVEY by SurveyMonkey and Apartment List, an online rental marketplace based in San Francisco, showed that a quarter of renters paid only part or none of their rent this month.

“These numbers are extremely worrying,” said Igor Popov, the chief economist at Apartment List. In a typical economic downturn, when incomes take a hit, many families can downsize or move in together to minimize their rent payments. At a time when we’re sheltering in place, even moves to downgrade housing are difficult.

Those who have been squeezed the most can expect to be squeezed even more.

Before the coronavirus outbreak, Destination: Home, a Silicon Valley nonprofit that works to prevent homelessness, was on track to give $7 million in financial assistance to about 1,000 families. In March, the organization raised an additional $11 million for coronavirus relief, but was overwhelmed with demand - 4,500 requests in three days - and stopped accepting applications. The waiting list has close to 10,000 people and is growing each day.

“I thought there was nothing that I haven’t been involved in when it comes to homelessness,” said Jennifer Loving, chief executive of Destination: Home, “but this is incomprehensibly catastrophic.”

In a REPORT ON THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond warns that the largest burdens will fall on people who are already the most vulnerable - people in low-paying, insecure jobs.

That is also a group with an outsize share of minorities and immigrants.

As a MCKINSEY REPORT released this week noted, “the unfolding public-health and economic disaster resulting from the pandemic will disproportionately impact black Americans.”

It is another echo of Bourke-Whites “American Way” photo, where the contented family in the car is white and the grim faces waiting for aid are black and brown.

Conor Dougherty and Nelson D. Schwartz contributed reporting.

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Thursday, November 21, 2019

The Next Depression Part 55 - Nearing The Second Great Depression

image: american dream is over

We Could Be Nearing The Second Great Depression

By John Mauldin
Forbes
December 12, 2019

You really need to WATCH THIS VIDEO of a recent conversation between Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones. Their part is about the first 40 minutes. In this video, Ray highlights some problematic similarities BETWEEN OUR TIMES AND THE 1930s. Both feature:

1. a large wealth gap
2. the absence of effective monetary policy
3. a change in the world order, in this case the rise of China and the potential for trade wars/technology wars/capital wars.

He threw in a few quick comments as their time was running out, alluding to the potential for the end of the world reserve system and the collapse of fiat monetary regimes. Maybe it was in his rush to finish as their time is drawing to a close, but it certainly sounded a more challenging tone than I have seen in his writings.

Currency Wars

It brought to mind an essay I read last week from my favorite central banker, former BIS Chief Economist William White. He was warning about potential currency wars, aiming particularly at the US Treasurys seeming desire for a weaker dollar. Ditto for other governments around the world.

He believes this is a prescription for disaster:

One possibility is that it might lead to a disorderly end to the current dollar based regime, which is already under strain for a variety of both economic and geopolitical reasons. To destroy an old, admittedly suboptimal, regime without having prepared a replacement could prove very costly to trade and economic growth.

Perhaps even worse, conducting a currency war implies directing monetary policy to something other than domestic price stability. There ceases to be a domestic anchor to constrain the expansion of central bank balance sheets.

Should this lead to growing suspicion of all fiat currencies, especially those issued by governments with large sovereign debts, a sharp increase in inflationary expectations and interest rates might follow. How this might interact with the record high debt ratios, both public and private, that we see in the world today, is not hard to imagine.

I called Bill to ask if he thought this was going to happen. Basically, he said no, but it shouldn’t even be considered. It was his gentlemanly way of issuing a warning.

Currency devaluations against gold were part of the root cause of the Great Depression. Coupled with protectionism and tariffs, they devastated global economic growth and trade.

The Repeat of the 1930s?

Do I think it will happen in any significant way in the next few years? It is not my highest probability scenario. But imagine a recession that brings the US deficit to $2 trillion, possibly followed by a governmental change that raises taxes and spending.

This could bring about a second “echo” recession with even higher deficits. This would force the Federal Reserve to monetize debt in order to keep interest rates from skyrocketing, thereby weakening the dollar.

Couple this with a concurrent crisis in Europe, potentially even a eurozone breakup, resulting in countries all over the world trying to weaken their currencies with the potential for higher inflation in many places.

In such a scenario, is it hard to imagine a desperate president and Congress, toward the latter part of the next decade, regardless of which party is in control, instructing the US Treasury to use its tools to weaken the dollar?

Can you say beggar thy neighbor? Can you see other countries following that path? All as debt is increasing with no realistic exit strategy except to monetize it?

I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more HERE.

SOURCE

Posted by Elvis on 11/21/19 •
Section Dying America • Section Next Recession, Next Depression
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Thursday, May 23, 2019

America In Collapse 5

image: the end is near

We’re In The Final Years Of The American Empire

By Rainer Shea
Medium
May 19. 2019

The United States has reached a point where its entire claim to global hegemony is based on a series of largely fragile geopolitical alliances, and on a worldwide military presence that can’t be sustained for much longer. As the political writer Dmitry Orlov said in an interview last month: “I think that the AMERICAN EMPIRE is very much over already, but it hasn’t been put to any sort of serious stress test yet, and so nobody realizes that this is the case.”

The last few years military budget expansions, war campaigns against Iran and Venezuela, and attempts to strong-arm Russia and China are all part of the American empire’s reaction to this fragility on its part. So is the fact that the United States has been directly at war for the last eighteen years. Throughout this time, the American empire has been in a state similar to that of the British empire after it attacked Egypt in 1956, or to that of the Athenian empire during the Peloponnesian War of 431404 B.C. When these empires launched these great military adventures, they both experienced a rapid decline in their ability to hold together the power structures they֒d created, and soon they were no longer dominant. The same has been happening to the U.S. since the start if its disastrous invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Since that time, endless wars and military expansions have drained the U.S. economy while the Great Recession and increasing income inequality have further impeded the country’s ability to economically function. The U.S. has mostly lost its ability to persuade formerly loyal countries to serve its foreign policy goals; the Trump administration’s push for war with Iran is mainly getting support from Saudi Arabia and Israel, with the international community overwhelmingly rejecting Trumps Iran agenda. Overall, the hand that America plays during its regime change attempts is now decrepit and increasingly ineffectual; the U.S. has ended up isolating itself on the world stage by supporting GuaidoҒs illegal coup attempt in Venezuela, with 75% of the worlds countries backing Maduro. And in a world that’s become multipolar, Russia and China have lately been outmaneuvering the U.S. economically and militarily, such as with their preparations to protect Venezuela from an invasion.

The U.S. still can still do great damage through sanctions-as its doing right now in Syria-and its military remains the largest in the world. But without strong international support or an economy that works properly, the country is only retaining its power through endless violence and military buildup. The U.S. is an international outlaw whose government is widely hated and distrusted both at home and abroad, and mass revolt against it could easily break out in the coming years as lower class discontent reaches a boiling point.

None of this is hyperbole. In 2017, a Pentagon report stated that American power “is not merely fraying but may, in fact, be collapsing.” The report even recommended that the government try to maintain its control through propaganda, increased surveillance, and more military expansionism.

But reality will catch up with the empire’s attempts to stop its own unraveling. Americas great undoing will be the collapse of the dollar-an eventuality which the U.S. has been trying to stave off by intervening in Iran and Venezuela for their rejection of America’s currency. If the U.S. were to conquer both of these countries, it wouldnt be able to halt the transition away from American trade dominance that nations around the world are making. With Bush’s unilateral invasion of Iraq, the U.S. lost the respect of many nations around the world, and Trumps TRADE WARS and rejections of international agreements like the Paris agreement have accelerated this rupture between the U.S. and the rest of the world. America’s global dollar reserves are being replaced by other currencies. And as this process continues, its going to combine with the country’s internal financial mismanagement to create a 21st century Great Depression.

By the end of the 2020s, the U.S. may be so economically crippled that it will have to massively withdraw its global military forces. This will represent the death of the American empire, which the author Alfred McCoy has predicted will come around the year 2030. At that point, writes McCoy, the country will be experiencing soaring prices, ever-rising unemployment, and a continuing decline in real wages throughout the 2020s, [as] domestic divisions widen into violent clashes and divisive debates, often over symbolic, insubstantial issues.Ӕ

“The decline of the dollar, as well as potential wars with Iran, Russia, and China, are going to be the stress test” that Orlov anticipates will end America as we know it. This collapse cant be stopped. The question is what will happen after America goes under.

This question will be decided by those who make the choice between whether they’ll continue to support capitalism, or fight for a world that isn’t controlled by fascistic governments and powerful multinational corporations. After the U.S. loses its power, the corporatocracy will use the private armies of mercenary companies like Blackwater to carry out its regime change projects. Already, Blackwater is aiming to cash in on American desires for continued military involvement by becoming part of the wars in Afghanistan and Syria. This privatization of the empire will be an unprecedented corporate takeover, and it will be facilitated by a collection of world powers that have embraced ethno-nationalism and authoritarianism.

The European Union will likely work as one of these authoritarian powers; the EU’s recent efforts to control information and exert police power over the populations of its member countries show that the EU could soon become an instrument for social control within its region. This will be paralleled by a plethora of countries which are already quickly shifting towards despotism and ethnic nationalism, with America having some of the greatest potential for falling into tyranny. As Chris Hedges has written about what America will look like if it continues on its current path:

The central government will be reduced to its most basic functions - internal and external security and collecting taxes. Severe poverty will cripple the lives of most citizens. Any essential service once provided by the state, from utilities to basic policing, will be privatized, expensive and inaccessible to those without resources - The mass media will become nakedly Orwellian, chatting endlessly about a bright future and pretending America remains a great superpower. It will substitute political gossip for news - a corruption already far advanced - while insisting that the country is in an economic recovery or about to enter one.

But the world DOESN’T HAVE TO end up like this. There are people who are fighting back against corporate power, fascism, and imperialism. They may be on the margins, but they have the advantage of being the ones who are fighting on behalf of a population which is outraged at declining living standards and widening inequality. We need to unite all of these freedom fighters around the goal of overthrowing capitalism and building a socialist workerŒs state, or the forces of empire will continue to subjugate us.

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Posted by Elvis on 05/23/19 •
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Friday, April 19, 2019

The Next Recession Part 27

As US Economy Weakens, Economists Struggle to Predict Next Recession

By Dean Baker
Truthout
April 1, 2019

Many of the people who completely missed the worst recession since the Great Depression are trying to get out front and tell us about the next one on the way. The big item glowing in their crystal ball is an inversion of the yield curve. There has been an inversion of the yield curve before nearly every prior recession and we have never had an inversion of the yield curve without seeing a recession in the next two years.

Okay, if you have no idea what an inversion of the yield curve means, it probably means youre a normal person with better things to do with your time. But for economists, and especially those who monitor financial markets closely, this can be a big deal.

An inverted yield curve refers to the relationship between shorter-and longer-term interest rates. Typically, the longer-term interest rate - say, the interest rate you would get on a 30-year bond is higher than what you would get from lending short-term, like buying a three-month U.S. Treasury bill.

The logic is that if you are locking up your money for a longer period of time, you have to be compensated with a higher interest rate. Therefore, it is generally true that as you get to longer durations - say, a one year bond compared to three-month bond - the interest rate rises. This relationship between interest rates and the duration of the loan is what is known as the “yield curve.”

We get an inverted yield curve when this pattern of higher interest rates associated with longer-term lending does not hold, as is now the case. For example, on March 27, the interest rate on a three-month Treasury bill was 2.43 percent. The interest rate on a 10-year Treasury bond was just 2.38 percent, 0.05 percentage points lower. This means we have an inverted yield curve.

While this inversion has historically been associated with a recession in the not too distant future, this is not quite a curse of an inverted yield curve story. Most recessions are brought on by the Federal Reserve Board raising the overnight federal funds rate (a very short-term interest rate), which is directly under its control. The Fed does this to slow the economy, ostensibly because it wants to keep the inflation rate from rising.

The higher short-term rate tends to also raise long-term interest rates, like car loans and mortgages, which are the rates that matter more for the economy. However, longer-term rates tend not to rise as much as the short-term rate. In a more typical economy, we might expect a 3.0 percentage point rise in the federal funds rate to be associated with a 1.0-2.0 percentage point rise in the 10-year Treasury bond rate.

We get an inversion in this story when the Fed goes too far. It keeps raising the short-term rate, but investors in longer-term debt think that they see an end in sight to rate hikes and a reversal on the way. If the short-term rate is going to be falling to 2.0 percent or even lower in future months, then investors would welcome the possibility of locking in an interest rate like today’s 2.38 percent on 10-year bonds, even if it means foregoing a slighter higher short-term rate at the moment.

That’s pretty much the story we have today. Since December 2015, the Fed has raised the federal funds rate from essentially 0 to 2.5 percent. With little evidence of inflation and some signs of a weakening economy, many investors are betting that the Fed has stopped hiking rates and will soon be lowering them. This hardly means there will necessarily be a recession.

It is also worth noting that interest rates in the US are notably higher than in other countries, which do face a recession or near recession conditions. While the US 10-year Treasury bond pays 2.38 percent interest, a 10-year French bond pays just 0.31 percent. In the Netherlands, the interest rate is 0.13 percent, and in Germany, you have to pay the government 0.07 percent annually to lend them money.

The extraordinarily low long-term interest rates in other countries puts downward pressure on interest rates here, which is another factor in our inverted yield curve. The weakness of economies elsewhere does mean trade is likely to be a drag on growth in the immediate future, but it does not mean a recession.

To sum up the general picture, the U.S. economy is definitely weakening. The tax cut did provide a boost to growth in 2018, as shareholders spent much of the money they were given from the corporate tax cut. But there will be no additional boost in 2019. There was no investment boom to give us a big push going forward. Also, the rise in mortgage interest rates last year, following the Fed rate hikes, slowed housing.

As noted, trade is a drag on growth. With Republicans again concerned about deficits, since they got their tax cuts, we can probably expect some cuts in government spending that will also dampen growth.

However, with wages growing at a respectable pace, and job growth remaining healthy, we should see enough consumption demand to keep the economy moving forward. That means slower growth, but no recession.

People should not spend time worrying about the curse of the inverted yield curve, at least not unless something else bad happens to the economy.

SOURCE

Posted by Elvis on 04/19/19 •
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